Economic Growth in United States
The United States saw robust GDP growth from 2013 to 2019, driven by strong consumer spending and technological innovation. However, growth was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, leading to a sharp but brief recession. The subsequent recovery in 2021-2022 was rapid, fueled by significant fiscal stimulus and monetary support.
The United States recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 2.3% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth rate was 1.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
United States GDP Chart
United States GDP Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.0 | 2.5 | -2.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
GDP (USD bn) | 20,657 | 21,521 | 21,323 | 23,594 | 25,744 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 10.7 | 9.1 |
GDP growth beats expectations in Q4
GDP growth slowed to 3.3% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the fourth quarter, from 4.9% in the third quarter. However, the figure was well above market expectations, and likely made the U.S. by far the best-performing economy in the G7 in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, economic growth edged up to 3.1% in Q4, following the previous period's 2.9% expansion. Q4's reading marked the fastest growth since Q1 2022.
Household spending growth slowed to 2.8% SAAR in Q4 from a 3.1% expansion in Q3. That said, the outturn was still strong, with consumption buoyed by ongoing healthy employment growth and ebbing price pressures. Public spending growth was the slowest since Q4 2022, expanding 3.3% (Q3: +5.8% SAAR). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth fell to 1.7% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q4 2022 (Q3: +2.6% SAAR). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth accelerated to 6.3% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in the fourth quarter, which marked the best reading since Q1 (Q3: +5.4% SAAR). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth waned to 1.9% in Q4 (Q3: +4.2% SAAR).
Our Consensus is for economic growth to ebb this year, but the economy now seems very unlikely to contract, given sustained disinflation in recent months and still-robust economic activity.
On current economic conditions, TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate said: “Economic growth ends 2023 with a bang, smashing expectations and stringing together two of the strongest back-to-back quarters in two-years. The details of the report were very supportive of the ongoing resilience, with domestic demand accounting for most of last quarter's gain. With the economy holding up remarkably well and the labor market still tight by historical standards, policymakers can afford to proceed carefully over the coming months. Economic growth is still running well above its long-run potential.” On the outlook, Nomura analysts said: “Faster disinflation and the Fed’s dovish pivot have led to easing financial conditions and robust risk sentiment. This reduces the risk of a sharp credit contraction in the business sector and may unleash pent-up demand in housing and consumer spending when the Fed delivers its widely expected rate cuts. Although recession risks will linger […] a contraction is no longer our base case.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 69 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for American GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of American GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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